[SMM Analysis] Analysis of Indonesia's RKAB Approval Situation

Published: Jan 21, 2025 09:15

Save

According to SMM estimates, as of January 20, 2025, Indonesia has approved a total RKAB volume of approximately 260 million to 300 million wmt, which includes mine quotas that are already eligible for production and those approved but not permitted for production. At the beginning of the year, Jakarta's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) approved 207 nickel work plans and budgets (RKAB) for 2025 for production, while another 85 RKABs were approved but not allowed for production. Records show that in 2025, ESDM has issued a total of 292 RKAB licenses.

Reviewing 2024, a total of 193 RKABs were approved, with an annual RKAB approval volume of 272 million wmt. SMM analysis indicates that in 2024, the total local demand for Indonesian nickel ore was 256 million wmt, of which 176 million wmt came from demand for Indonesian NPI, 29 million wmt from demand for Indonesian nickel matte, and 49 million wmt from demand for Indonesian MHP. The RKAB approval volume in 2024 slightly exceeded the local annual demand, and from the supply rhythm perspective, RKAB approvals showed a tight-first and loose-later pattern. Additionally, Indonesia imported approximately 10 million wmt of nickel ore from the Philippines in 2024.

For 2025, SMM expects the total local demand for Indonesian nickel ore to reach approximately 312 million wmt, with around 169 million wmt coming from demand for Indonesian NPI, 47 million wmt from the incremental demand for Indonesian nickel matte, and 89 million wmt from the ramp-up of Indonesian MHP. It is expected that Indonesia's nickel ore imports may increase to 13 million wmt this year. Overall, nickel ore quotas in H1 2025 appear relatively loose compared to the same period last year, but there may still be short-term tightness in nickel ore supply during the year. The approval of temporary quotas in mid-year will significantly impact the overall nickel ore supply in H2.

SMM will continue to monitor the approval of Indonesian RKAB quotas in real-time and provide the market with first-hand information.

Subscribe to view SMM historical spot metal prices.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

19 hours ago

High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip

[SMM Nickel Flash] Based on nickel ore prices from 25 days ago, smelter profits for high-grade NPI remained high this week. However, from the current raw material side, ore prices from both the Philippines and Indonesia increased, while auxiliary material prices saw a slight pullback, leading to an increase in the cash cost of producing high-grade NPI from spot ore. At the same time, high-grade NPI prices experienced some pullback, making it difficult for smelter profits to see sustained improvement.

19 hours ago

High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches

[SMM Nickel Flash] This week, due to a sharp decline in futures triggering arbitrage selling, high-grade NPI prices fell significantly. However, after the selling activity subsided, upstream quotations and the market center gradually returned to normal levels, supported by cost factors. Looking ahead, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market activity is expected to remain subdued, and high-grade NPI prices are projected to hover at highs with limited fluctuations.

19 hours ago

Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu

[SMM Nickel Flash] The SMM average price of 10-12% high-grade NPI fell 17.2 yuan/mtu WoW to 1,035.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index average price dropped 2.06 $/mtu WoW to 131.2 $/mtu. At the beginning of the week, futures hit limit-down, and nickel prices fell sharply WoW, driving the emergence of arbitrage supplies sold at low prices, leading to a significant decline in high-grade NPI prices.

19 hours ago